社会网络环境下基于共识的风险性大群体应急决策非合作行为管理研究

Management of non-cooperative behavior in consensus-based large group emergency decision-making in social network environment

针对大群体应急决策中可能存在的非合作行为,考虑决策专家的社会网络关系,提出一种基于共识的管理大群体应急决策中非合作行为的方法.首先,引入社会网络中基于模块度的Louvain聚类方法对大群体决策专家进行聚类,降低大群体应急决策复杂性;其次,定义两种非合作行为,并建立非合作行为的识别和检测模型;再次,定义信任风险系数、偏好风险系数以及综合风险系数,通过风险系数对不同程度的非合作行为聚集进行偏好调节,从而得到共识水平较高的决策方案;最后,利用"4.25西藏地震的案例"验证所提出方法的可行性和有效性.

In view of the possible non-cooperative behavior in large group emergency decision-making, considering the social network relationship of decision-making experts, a consensus-based method for managing non-cooperative behavior in large group emergency decision-making is proposed. Firstly, the Louvain clustering method based on modularity in social network is introduced to cluster decision experts to reduce the complexity of large group emergency decision-making. Secondly, two kinds of non-cooperative behaviors are defined, the identification and detection model of non-cooperative behaviors is established. Then, the concepts of trust risk coefficient, preference risk coefficient and comprehensive risk coefficient are defined. These risk coefficients are used to manage the aggregation of non-cooperative behaviors in different degrees, so that a decision-making scheme with high consensus level can be obtained. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper are verified by the case of the 4.25 Tibet earthquake.