“一带一路”沿线国家经济发展状况及其与人口和碳排放的关系研究

Economic Development Status of the Countries along the Belt and Road and Their Correlations with Population and Carbon Emissions

丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的建设,是经济全球化背景下中国扩大对外开放的重要举措。基于此,本文从地缘经济学的角度出发,同时运用多种数学统计方法,对"一带一路"沿线30个国家的经济发展状况和差异进行了分析。此外,还进一步分析了这些国家的GDP与人口和碳排放之间的相关性。结果表明,"一带一路"沿线国家目前的经济发展水平存在很大差异;"一带一路"沿线国家经济发展的各项指标的差距在整体上呈现出逐步缩小的特征;中国的经济发展质量为"一带一路"沿线国家提供了广阔的发展空间。在研究期间,"一带一路"沿线国家的GDP、人口和碳排放呈现总体上升趋势,这三个值的变化显示出显著的相关性。GDP与人口之间的相关系数为0.989,GDP与碳排放之间的相关系数为0.995,人口与碳排放之间的相关系数为0.993,表明GDP,人口与碳排放之间的相关性非常高。其中,GDP与碳排放的相关性最高,达到0.995。通过回归分析,我们发现R值达到0.995,表明回归拟合效果很好,计算结果高度可靠。根据研究结果,本文提出以下建议:(1)推进"一带一路"倡议应处理好发展中国家与发达国家之间的关系;(2)推进"一带一路"倡议也应该与中国的国内区域发展战略联系起来。

The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are important measures for allowing China to expand its opening up to the outside world under the background of economic globalization.Based on this consideration,and from the perspective of geo-economics,this study uses a variety of mathematical statistical methods to analyze the economic development status and differences among the 30 countries along the Belt and Road.In addition,the correlations between GDP,population and carbon emissions in these countries are also analyzed.The results show that the current economic development levels of the countries along the Belt and Road are quite variable;the gaps between the indicators of the economic development of the countries along the Belt and Road are convergent;the GDP,population,and carbon emissions of the countries along the Belt and Road each showed an overall upward trend during the study period,and the changes in these three values showed significant correlations.Across all countries,the correlation coefficients between GDP and population(0.989),between GDP and carbon emissions(0.995),and between population and carbon emissions(0.993),all indicate that the correlations between GDP,population and carbon emissions are very high.Among them,GDP has the highest correlation with carbon emissions,reaching 0.995.Regression analysis shows that the value of R^2 reached 0.995,indicating that the regression fitting effect is very good and the calculation result is highly reliable.Based on these results,this paper proposes the following two suggestions:(1)Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should handle the relationship between developing and developed countries;and(2)Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should also be linked to China’s domestic regional development strategy.