经济增长中金融杠杆的门槛效应分析

Analysis of the Threshold Effect of Financial Leverage in Economic Growth

金融体系的健康运行是保障国民经济发展目标实现的重要支撑。在深入推进供给侧结构性改革的大背景下,“去杠杆”势在必行。基于我国31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,构建了金融杠杆与经济增长之间的面板门槛模型。实证结果表明金融杠杆与经济增长之间是一种非线性关系,金融杠杆过高对经济增长有抑制作用,这种抑制作用在越发达的地区表现越明显。因此,要采取“结构性去杠杆”策略,坚持宏观审慎的原则,对不同区域、不同主体、不同债务区别对待。

The healthy operation of the financial system is an important support for ensuring the realization of the national economic development goals.Under the background of deepening the structural reform of the supply side,“de-leveraging”is imperative.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China's Mainland,the paper constructs a panel threshold model between financial leverage and economic growth.The results show that there is a non-linear relationship between financial leverage and economic growth.Excessive financial leverage has an inhibitory effect on economic growth.This kind of inhibition is more obvious in the more developed regions.Therefore,it is necessary to adopt a“structural de-leverage”strategy,adhere to the principle of macro-prudence,and treat different regions,different subjects,and different debts differently.