京津冀煤炭消费与经济增长脱钩分析

Decoupling analysis between coal consumption and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

为研究京津冀煤炭消费和经济增长的关系,构建并利用脱钩系数测量模型动态反映京津冀地区煤炭消费和经济增长关系的时间演变特征,在此基础上运用对数平均迪氏指数法进行京津冀煤炭消费影响因素分析。分析结果显示:京津冀区域煤炭消费与经济增长长期保持弱脱钩状态,其中,北京实现了从弱脱钩向强脱钩的转变,天津仍保持弱脱钩状态,河北逐渐实现从扩张连结向弱脱钩态体的转变。在影响煤炭消费的因素中,经济增长效应无一例外成为区域及各地煤炭消费增加的主导因素,能源强度效应和能源结构效应对区域及各地煤炭消费均起到抑制作用,产业结构效应正逐渐由煤炭消费的驱动因素转变为抑制因素,作用方式因地而异。

In order to study the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,a decoupling model is constructed to dynamically reflect the time evolution characteristics of the relationship between them.On this basis,LMDI is used to analyze the impacts of coal consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The result shows that the regional decoupling relationship between coal consumption and economic growth is a weak-decoupling state in long-term.Among them,Beijing has realized the transition from weak-decoupling to strong-decoupling,Tianjin is still in weak-decoupling state,Hebei has gradually realized the transformation from expanding connection to weak-decoupling.Among the factors affecting coal consumption,economic growth effect is the leading factor for coal consumption increase in all regions.Both energy intensity effect and energy structure effect restrain local coal consumption.And industrial structure effect is gradually changing from coal consumption driving factor to restraining factor,and the mode of action varies from place to place.