生猪保险与生猪饲料原料期货效果的评价及影响因素分析

The evaluation of the effect of pig insurance and pig feed material futures by breeders and the analysis of the influencing factors

文章旨在建立Ordered Probit模型,讨论生猪保险与生猪饲料原料期货效果的影响因素。通过构建层次分析法,结合河南、四川、广西与广东四个省及自治区的调查数据,考察生猪保险与生猪原料期货效果各指标的影响规律。结果表明,生产经营风险与养殖者对于保险的认知程度正向影响生猪保险效果评价,市场价格波动风险对生猪保险效果评价的影响为负;玉米价格收益正向影响生猪饲料原料期货效果评价,对生猪价格收益的影响效果为负;养殖年限、养殖规模、养殖者加入专业合作社与政府信任四个变量均正向影响生猪保险与生猪饲料原料期货效果评价。研究结论为提高养殖者风险防控与强化生猪养殖能力提供参考。

The paper aims to establish the Ordered Probit model and discuss the factors influencing the effect of hog insurance and hog feed raw material futures.By constructing the analytic hierarchy process and combining the survey data of four provinces of Henan,Sichuan,Guangxi and Guangdong,the influence law of each index of hog insurance and hog raw material futures effect is investigated.The analysis results show that the risk of production and management and the farmers’awareness of insurance positively affect the evaluation of the effect of live pig insurance.The risk of market price fluctuations has a negative impact on the evaluation of the effect of live pig insurance.Corn price income has a positive effect on the evaluation of the effect of pig feed material futures,and a negative effect on the price income of pigs.The four variables of breeding years,breeding scale,farmers joining professional cooperatives and government trust have a positive effect on the evaluation of pig insurance and pig feed material futures.The conclusion of the study can provide an effective theoretical basis for farmers to improve risk prevention and control,and strengthen the ability of pig breeding.