基于灰色马氏链模型的农村居民消费水平预测

The Forecast of Consumption Level of Rural Residents Based on Grey Markov Chain Model

选取2000—2018年全国农村居民消费水平为样本数据,对农村居民消费水平变化趋势进行研究.将灰色模型与马氏链模型相结合,建立灰色马氏链预测模型.通过对比发现,灰色马氏链模型能够提高预测精度,并利用灰色马氏链模型对2019—2025年的农村居民消费水平进行了预测.结果表明:农村居民消费水平有明显的上升趋势.

In this paper,the authors study the changing trend of rural residents'consumption levels by using the sample data from 2000 to 2018.A gray model and a Markov chain model are combined to establish a gray Markov chain prediction model.Comparatively,the gray Markov chain model can improve prediction accuracy.The gray Markov chain model is used to predict the consumption level of rural residents in 2019-2025.The results show that the consumption level of rural residents has a clear upward trend.