多模式降雨集成预报在盘锦地区的应用与检验

Application and test of multi-model integrated rainfall forecast in Panjin Area

文中选取CMA和JMA两个中心的降水预报模式数据,结合盘锦地区降水实际状况,采用最小二乘集成以及加权平均集成方法对多模式的降水集成预报进行应用与检验。研究结果表明:多模式降水集成预报比单一模式预报误差明显减少;最小二乘集成在6~12 h内降水误差高于加权集成误差,但在12~24 h以内误差低于加权集成;在中小雨量级预报下,加权集成误差较小,而在大雨量级预报下,最小二乘集成误差相对较小。

In this paper, the data of precipitation forecast models from CMA and JMA centers are selected, and combined with the actual precipitation situation in Panjin area, the least square integration and weighted average integration methods are adopted to apply and test the multi-mode precipitation forecast.The results show that the errors of the multi-model integrated precipitation forecast are significantly reduced compared with the single model forecast.The precipitation error of least-square integration is higher than the weighted integration error within 6 ~ 12 h, but lower than the weighted integration error within 12 ~ 24 h.The weighted integration error is small in the forecast of light and medium rain, while the least squares integration error is relatively small in the forecast of heavy rain.