双重“黑天鹅”事件下汇率波动对石油公司财务业绩影响分析

Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Financial Performance of Oil Companies under Double "Black Swan" Events

汇率风险一直是国际石油公司重要的风险因素,对原油购买、涉外经济贸易等经济活动将产生不同程度的影响。2020年以来,“黑天鹅”事件频发,新冠疫情暴发,原油价格暴跌,中美贸易恶化,地缘政治冲突不断。在全球经济大幅萎缩的情况下,国内外投资者纷纷涌向美元市场,避险情绪高涨,催生美元指数在波动上升中持续走强,多国本币兑美元货币贬值严重。在2020年初风云跌宕的汇率市场中,虽然国际石油公司都不同程度地收到了供需双侧的冲击,但其财务业绩受汇率波动的影响却产生显著差异。汇率波动风险通过资本融资风险、交易风险和经营风险3条路径影响国际石油公司财务业绩。本文通过观察分析2020年以来主要货币汇率波动情况,聚焦分析汇率风险对公司财务业绩影响,对我国石油公司如何适应汇率变化,加强公司规避汇率波动风险能力给出初步建议。

For international oil companies, foreign exchange risk has always been an important risk factor. Foreign economic trade, crude oil purchase and other economic activities are exposed to foreign exchange fluctuations. In 2020, Covid-19 outbreak(the "black swan" event) has spread rapidly around the world, resulting in a sharp decline in global trade. With world economy hit hard by the event, the risk aversion at home and abroad has been rising, the U.S. dollar index has continued to strengthen in the rise of volatility, and the currencies of many countries have depreciated against the U.S. dollar. The exchange rate markets are volatile, and international oil companies are not immune. Although all of the oil companies are under the dual impact of demand and supply, their performances affected by the exchange rate are different. Exchange rate fluctuations may have a positive or negative influence on corporate finance mainly through capital financing risk, transaction risk and operating risk. By observing and analyzing the exchange rate fluctuations of major currencies in the first quarter of 2020, this paper focuses on the impact of exchange rate risks on oil company’s financial performance, and gives preliminary suggestions on how Sinopec can adapt to exchange rate changes and strengthen the company’s ability to avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.