中美经贸摩擦的影响评估与应对方案

The Impact Assessment and Response Plans of China-US Trade Friction

通过可计算一般均衡模型对中美经贸摩擦及美国、欧盟和日本之间实现自由贸易对中国、美国和世界的影响进行评估,并对提升技术水平、中国推进区域全面经济伙伴关系、加入全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定、提升私人部门消费等4种不同应对方案的效果进行比较。模拟结果表明:中美经贸摩擦对中国经济增长和社会福利产生负向影响,且随着美国加征关税规模的增大,中国经济下行压力不断加大;中国采取应对措施向美国加征关税,其效果整体上优于不采取应对措施。比较4种应对方案发现:提升技术水平是对中国正向影响最大的措施,该措施不仅可以抵消中美经贸摩擦带来的不利影响,而且可以促进中国国内生产总值和社会福利的增加,有利于中国经济的长远发展。未来,中国应努力提高科技水平,掌握核心技术;推动更高水平的对外开放,增强在国际贸易规则制定中的话语权;促进国内消费,拉动经济的发展。

This paper evaluates the impacts of China-US trade friction and free trade between the US,European Union and Japan on China,the US and the world through a computable general equilibrium model,and compares the effects of four different countermeasures,which are improving technology,promoting RCEP,joining CPTPP,and promoting private sector consumption.The study shows that trade friction has negative impacts on China’s economy and social welfare;and as the friction escalates,China’s economy would come under more downward pressures,but it is basically better to impose additional tariffs on the US than not.By comparing the four countermeasures,this paper finds that upgrading technology has the most positive impact on China.This measure can not only offset the adverse effects of China-US trade friction,but also promote China’s GDP,social welfare and the long-term development of China’s economy.In the future,China should actively develop science and technology,master core technologies,push forward a higher-level opening up and participate more in the formulation of global trade rules,and promote domestic consumption and economic growth.