资源型经济转型背景下大同煤业产能优化与地方经济发展关系研究

Research on Relationship Between Capacity Optimization of Datong Coal Industry Co.,Ltd.and Local Economic Development in the Background of Resource-based Economic Transformation

资源型城市的传统经济增长动力来自初等资源禀赋,但随着资源枯竭、生态恶化和经济的不可持续性等严重问题出现,亟需转变经济发展模式。本文以2000-2018年大同市GDP增速和大同煤业产能利用率、原煤产能增长率、固定资产投资增长率为数据样本,引入向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究大同煤业产能优化与地方经济增长的内在关联性。实证研究表明:产能利用率增加对于经济增长短期效果显著,但长期表现为负向冲击;原煤产能增长率对经济增长带来短期的周期性波动,长期具有负向冲击作用拖累经济发展;固定资产投资增长有利于形成新兴产能,长期稳步提升经济增长。因此,从企业供给端的结构性调整出发,优化过剩产能是当前转型发展的迫切任务。

The traditional economic growth impetus of resource-based cities comes from primary resource endowments,but with problems of resource exhaustion,ecological deterioration and economic unsustainability,it is urgent to change the economic develop⁃ment mode and optimize excess capacity from supply side structural adjustment.The data were selected from 2000 to 2018 GDP growth rate of Datong City and Datong Coal Industry Co.capacity utilization rate,raw coal capacity growth rate and fixed asset investment growth rate.We cited VAR model to research internal correlation between capacity optimization and local economic growth.Empirical results demonstrate:increase of capacity utilization has a significant short-term effect on economic growth,but a negative impact in the long run;raw coal capacity growth rate brings short-term cyclical fluctuations to economic growth and a negative impact in the long run;fixed asset investment growth is conducive to form new capacity and steady economy growth in the long run.Therefore,starting from the structural adjustment of enterprise supply side,optimizing excess capacity is the urgent task of current transformation and de⁃velopment.