摘要
提出农业转移人口市民化与产城融合两方面影响因素假设,对安徽省16个省辖市2007-2016年面板数据进行主成分分析,得出:城镇经济、城乡生活、社会公平是影响农业转移人口市民化的主要因素,城市承载、经济发展、产业升级是影响产城融合的主要因素。对面板数据进行脉冲响应分析及方差分解,发现:市民化是产城融合的原因但影响效果较小,产城融合对市民化暂无因果关系却有显著影响,市民化与产城融合彼此协调互动效果不明显。建议:从区域经济、人口制度等方面加快农业转移人口市民化,以产业先行、产城融合促进经济城镇化,统筹经济发展与城市建设以丰富新型城镇化内涵。
The factor influencing rural citizenization and city-industry integration is assumed as an index set according to the literature.The principal component analysis is used to measure rural citizenization and city-industry integration based on the panel data of the 16 provinces in Anhui Province from 2007 to 2016.The conclusion shows that urban economy,urban-rural life and social equity mainly affect rural citizenization,and that urban bearing capacity,economic development and industrial upgrading mainly affect city-industry integration.The results of analysis of panel VAR model indicate that the rural citizenization is the cause of city-industry integration,but its effect is little.City-industry integration has a significant impact on rural citizenization without a causality temporarily.The interactive effect is not obvious between the rural citizenization and city-industry integration.Therefore,we suggest that the measures of population system economy and Regional can be taken to promote rural citizenization,that the steps on industrial advancement and city-industry integration can be taken to promote the urbanization of the economy,and that the economic development and urban construction should be coordinated to enrich the connotation of new-type urbanization.
作者
奚昕
陈学云
XI Xin;CHEN Xue-Yun(School of Economics and Management,Chuzhou University,Chuzhou 239000,Anhui)
出处
《阜阳师范大学学报(社会科学版)》
2020年第4期107-115,共9页
Journal of Fuyang Normal University:Social Science
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“安徽省农业转移人口市民化与产城融合互动研究”(AHSKY2016D24)。