区域安全组织何以瓦解

Why Do Regional Security Organizations Collapse?

区域安全组织是特定地区范围内的安全导向型国际组织,以区域安全作为首要关切且协调成员国行动。区域安全组织的演进路径具有差异性,有些得以存续且不断巩固,有些逐渐衰落甚至走向瓦解。现有关于区域安全组织为何瓦解的研究没有从本质上解释其中的因果机制,需要搭建理解这种经验困惑的分析框架。区域安全组织的瓦解受到组织与成员的安全利益契合度以及组织的环境调适力两个变量的共同作用,安全利益契合度低导致组织不能满足成员的个体安全需求,成员国对于组织采取消极规避甚至退出战略;组织的环境调适力弱使得组织难以适应国际及区域安全体系环境的变迁,组织采取现状战略并导致其逐渐衰落;主导国因素是其中的干预变量,对于以上变量的作用发挥着重要影响。文章以东南亚条约组织、北约以及五国联防组织为案例,检验这个理论假设的解释力。本文的研究结论有助于更好地把握及预测区域安全组织的未来走向。

Geared toward the security in a given region,a regional security organization takes the region’s security as its primary concern and coordinates the action of its member states.There is divergence in the evolution of regional security organizations as some survive and continue to consolidate while others gradually decline or even collapse.Since existing research on the cause of their collapse offers no causal mechanism,it is necessary to build a new analytical framework to explain such empirical puzzle.The disintegration of regional security organizations is caused by the combination of two variables:compatibility of security interests between the organization and its members,and its adaptability to the changing security environments.Lower compatibility of security interests results in the organization’s inability to meet the member’s security needs,and weaker adaptability makes it difficult to adjust to changes in the international and regional security environment.Meanwhile,the leading power in the regional security organization acts as the intervening variable.This paper takes SEATO,NATO,and the FPDA as cases to test the theoretical hypothesis.