新能源发电出力特性指标及其数据化应用

New Energy Generation Output Characteristic Index and Its Data Application

大规模新能源接入电网,其出力的波动性及随机性将对电网规划设计、电网安全经济运行带来较大影响。为解决电网规划相关计算中需结合新能源出力特性量化其出力的问题,分析了某地区电网已投产风电场及光伏电站出力运行出力历史数据,建立了风电及光伏发电出力自然特性指标体系,构建风电及光伏发电月平均出力、日最大出力概率分布、日平均出力、分时段利用小时数、全时段及分时段的出力-概率分布、全时段及分时段的出力-累积电量分布、小时出力-保证率等指标。分析该地区电网风电及光伏发电出力年特性、季特性、日特性等,通过算例分析验证了所提出指标体系的实用性。研究成果可以很好地应用于含新能源接入系统的电网规划及电网运行方式分析。

With the large-scale new energy connecting to the power system,the fluctuation and randomness of the new energy output will have great influence on the power grid planning and the safe and economical operation of the power grid. In order to solve the problem of quantifying new energy output based on new energy output characteristics in the grid planning calculation,this paper analyzes the historical output data of wind farms and solar power stations which have been put into operation in a regional power grid by establishing indexes to describe the natural characteristics of the new energy generation,and it analyzes the annual,quarterly and daily characteristics of wind farms and solar power stations output in the region. The paper establishes several indexes to analyze new energy output characteristics such as average monthly output,daily maximum output probability distribution,daily average output,hours of availability hours in periods of time,full timeperiod output-probability distribution,full-time and periodbased output-cumulative electric quantity distribution and hourly output-guarantee rate. The practicability of the proposed indexes is verified by examples. The research results can be well applied to the power grid planning and power grid operation mode analysis includes new energy access system.