内需拉动经济增长的长期宏观效应——基于长三角城市群的实证研究

The Long-term Effect of Domestic Demand on Economic Growth:An Empirical Study Based on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

新一轮高水平对外开放背景下推动经济高质量发展,需要重新定位“三驾马车”动力与经济增长之间的关系。文章采用1995-2017年苏浙沪皖三省一市全域41个地级市以及狭义长三角26个城市的高维面板数据,通过样本分割方法(sample-splitting methods)消除普通固定效应(FE)和Arellano-Bond(AB)方法的估计偏差,以提高统计推断的准确性。结果证实:“三驾马车”的长期宏观效应假设,尤其是内需对经济增长的作用被低估,在DFE去除偏差后得到更高的估计量。在正视对外开放因素基础上,为立足内需和消费,提供了更有力的支持。

In order to promote the high quality development of economy under the background of the new round of high level opening to the outside world,it is necessary to further locate the relationship between the motive force of the"troika"and the economic growth.Based on the high-dimensional panel data of 41 prefecture level cities in Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai and Anhui provinces and 26 cities in the narrow Yangtze River Delta from 1995 to 2017,this paper uses sample splitting methods to eliminate the estimation bias of ordinary fixed effect(FE)and Arellano-bond(AB)methods,so as to improve the accuracy of statistical inference.The results show that the long-term macro effect hypothesis of the"troi⁃ka",especially the role of domestic demand on economic growth,is underestimated,and a higher estimate is obtained af⁃ter the deviation is removed by DFE.On the basis of facing up to the factors of opening to the outside world,it has provid⁃ed more powerful support for domestic demand and consumption.