基于ANN-CA的土地利用变化模拟应用研究

Research on Land Use Change Simulation Application Based on ANN-CA

研究适用于流域土地利用变化模拟方法,基于元胞自动机原理,应用GeoSOS平台的ANN-CA模型对黑河中下游2000-2011年、2011-2017年两期土地利用状况进行模拟评价并分析,结果显示:①ANN-CA模型适用于模拟复杂的土地利用演化过程;②基于ANN-CA模型模拟的黑河中下游土地分类取得理想的模拟效果,模拟结果 kappa精度较好;③利用合适的模拟方法预测黑河中下游土地利用变化,以期为土地资源的保护和可持续发展以及相关规划编制提供参考依据。

Based on the principle of cellular automata,we applied the ANN-CA model of GeoSOS to simulate and evaluate the land use situation in the middle and lower Hei River during the period of 2000 to 2011 and 2011 to 2017.The results show that①the ANN-CA model is suitable for simulating the complex process of land use evolution.②The land classification simulation based on ANN-CA model achieves desired result,and the Kappa accuracy is good.③Using the suitable simulation method to simulate the land use change can provide reference basis for the protection and sustainable development of land resource as well as the preparation of relevant planning.