新疆耕地生态足迹与粮食安全的测算及动态关联分析

Calculation and Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Xinjiang Cultivated Land Ecological Footprint and Food Security

新疆是农业生产大省也是我国典型的生态脆弱地区,粮食安全与耕地资源联系紧密,在供给侧改革的背景下,本文以新疆1998—2017年相关数据为基础,测算新疆耕地生态足迹,并计算粮食安全系数,分析新疆粮食安全现状问题,运用VAR模型对新疆耕地生态足迹与粮食安全系数的进行动态关联分析。分析发现:耕地生态足迹变化影响粮食安全变化且影响程度较大;对于粮食安全变化来说,粮食安全变化自身对自身影响大于新疆耕地生态足迹对其的影响。

Xinjiang is a big agricultural province and a typical ecologically fragile areas in China,closely linked to food security and cultivated land resources,under the background of reform on the supply side,in this paper,based on the related data from 1998 to 2017 in xinjiang,measuring farmland ecological footprint in xinjiang,and calculate the coefficient of food security,analysis of problem of food security situation in xinjiang,using VAR model of cultivated land and coefficient of food security of ecological footprint dynamic correlation analysis.Dynamic analysis shows that the change of cultivated land footprint affects the change of food security and the in⁃fluence degree is large;As for the change of food security,the change of food security has a greater impact on itself than the ecological footprint of food cultivated land in Xinjiang.