民用航空发动机研制成本估算方法研究

Study on cost estimation mothod of civil aeroengine development

本文针对民用航空发动机研制过程的成本控制需要,以建立型号论证时快速估算民用航空发动机研制成本投入为目标,开展了民用航空发动机成本估算方法研究。研究中结合工程实际,建立了发动机重要总体参数方程,分析了发动机参数间的相关关系,识别出了用于建立参数模型估算研制成本的发动机关键特征参数,并搜集了几型发动机研制成本投入以及关键特征参数,利用多元线性回归理论建立了参数法成本估算模型,并对建立的参数法模型进行了回归显著性检验,考虑到文中使用的样本数据为国外不同年代的民用航空发动机研制成本数据,本文模型计算结果需进行时间修正和币种修正,本文建立的参数模型适用于研制早期快速估算研制成本,为项目论证和成本控制提供重要依据。

Aiming at the need of cost control in the development of civil aeroengines,this paper studies the cost estimation method of civil aeroengine in order to estimate quickly the cost of civil aeroengine development when establishing model demonstration.In the study,combined with the engineering practice,the important overall parameter equations of the engine were established.The correlation between engine parameters was analyzed,and several key characteristic parameters for establishing the parameter model to estimate the development cost were identified.Several engines’development cost and key feature parameters were collected.A multivariate linear regression theory was used to establish a cost estimation parametric model,and regression significance test was performed on the model.Considering that the samples data used in this article are the cost data of civil aviation engine development from different foreign countries,the calculation results of this model require time correction and currency correction.The parameter model established in this paper is suitable for the rapid estimation of development cost in the early stage of development,and provides an important basis for project demonstration and cost control.