人口老龄化背景下中国碳排放的影响因素研究——基于PET模型的实证分析

A Study of the Influencing Factors of China’s Carbon Emission in the Context of Aging Population:An Empirical Analysis Based on PET Model

基于PET模型建立了生产、消费与政府三部门均衡分析框架,并在此基础上采用中国1995-2016年的人口、经济与碳排放数据进行了岭回归有偏估计。研究发现,经济因素依然是中国碳排放增长的主因,但是人口与消费因素尤其是老龄化与碳排放的关系日益正相关,能源消费对碳排放的影响日趋明显。中国节能减排既需要从传统经济因素入手,降低单位GDP能耗;同时也需注重人口规模、人口增长与人口结构的均衡发展,提升人口素质,加强技术创新,倡导节能环保的消费理念,切实转变经济增长方式。

Based on the PET(Population,Environment and Technology)model,this paper establishes an analytical framework for the equilibrium of the three sections,i.e.,production,consumption and government.On this basis,it makes use of China’s population,economy and carbon emission data from 1995 to 2016 to carry out the biased estimation of ridge regression.The findings show that economic factors are still the main cause of carbon emission growth in China,but factors of population and consumption,especially the relationship between aging and carbon emission,are becoming positively related increasingly;the impact of energy consumption on carbon emissions is increasingly obvious.China’s energy conservation and emission reduction should not only start from traditional economic factors to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP,but also pay attention to the balanced development of population size,population growth and population structure,improve the quality of the population,strengthen the technological innovations,advocate the consumption concept of energy conservation and environmental protection,and effectively transform the mode of economic growth.