明代河南自然灾害与粮食安全研究

Study on Natural Disasters and Food Security in Henan in Ming Dynasty

自然灾害对粮食安全影响巨大,运用资料文献法对明代河南省的水、旱、蝗和霜雪低温灾害的频次变化特征、季节变化特征、空间分布特征进行分析,运用相关分析法对灾害与饥荒的相关性进行分析,运用统计学方法对粮价进行统计。研究表明明代河南省的水、旱、蝗和霜雪低温灾害的发生频次在1619年后均是上升趋势。饥荒与蝗灾的相关度最高,霜雪低温灾害与是否发生饥荒不存在显著性,水、旱、蝗和霜雪低温灾害均会对漕粮额产生影响,水、旱灾害会对漕运产生严重影响,霜雪低温灾害对漕运影响很小,崇祯时期灾害对粮食价格的影响程度最大。

Natural disasters have a huge impact on food security. Data and literature methods were used to analyze the frequency,seasonal,and spatial distribution characteristics of flood,drought,locust disaster,frost-snow and low-temperature disasters in Henan Province in the Ming Dynasty. Correlation analysis between disaster and famine using correlation analysis. Statistical methods were used to calculate the price. The research shows that the frequency of Flood,drought,locust disaster,frost-snow and low-temperature disasters all increased after 1619. The correlation between famine and locust disaster is the highest,and there is no correlation between the low-temperature frost and snow disaster and famine. Flood,drought,locust disaster,frost-snow and low-temperature disasters will all affect the amount of grains. Water and drought disasters have an impact on transport,and frost and snow disasters have little effect on transport. Disasters during the Chongzhen period had the greatest impact on food prices.