产业转移背景下西部运输需求的完全分解模型

Complete Decomposition Model of Demand of Transportation System in West under Background of Industrial Transfer

研究西部综合运输系统需求驱动因素,将产业转移因素考虑在内,对原有包含三大因素的完全分解模型进行改进,构建包含经济总量、运输需求强度、产业转移和产业结构整体变动等四大因素的完全分解模型,根据2002—2015年统计数据对西部地区综合运输系统需求进行实例计算.研究结果表明,经济总量增长是西部综合运输系统需求增长的主要原因,随着经济增速放缓,产业转移促进政策的出台,运输需求强度变化和产业转移的影响逐渐显著.在产业转移背景下,西部地区应该根据产业转移发展态势,有针对性地做好综合运输系统布局,创造更好的条件承接产业转移.

This paper studies the driving factors of the demand for the integrated transportation system in the western region of China to provide the basis for the transportation industry to formulate a reasonable development strategy. This paper takes industrial transfer as a factor to improve the original complete decomposition model. A complete decomposition model is developed, including four major factors, i.e., the total economic volume,intensity of transportation demand, industrial transfer, and overall change of industrial structure. A case study on the demand of the integrated transportation system in the western region based on the statistical data from 2002 to 2015 is carried out. The research shows that the economic growth is the main reason for the demand growth of the integrated transportation system. With the decrease of economic growth and the introduction of industrial transfer promotion policies, the impact of the transportation demand intensity and industrial transfer is gradually significant. Therefore, in the context of industrial transfer, the western region should do a good job in the comprehensive transportation system layout according to the development trend of industrial transfer, so as to create better conditions to undertake industrial transfer.