合肥市房价泡沫的测度--基于状态空间模型的研究

Measurement of Housing Price Bubble in Hefei:A Research based on State Space Model

为考察合肥市房价调控措施实施的效果如何,进一步推进合肥市房地产行业健康发展,采用房价收入比测度合肥市房价是否存在泡沫,结果表明合肥市房价存在一定程度泡沫;进一步从需求和供给两方面建立合肥市房地产基础价值的状态空间模型,分析合肥市房地产市场价格相对于基础价格的偏移率,研究显示偏移率由2009年的11.10%上升至2018年的45.65%,其中2018年第二季度的房地产价格偏移率达到最大值为51.53%,但自2018年底以来呈现出下降趋势.基于此提出应坚持调控,避免房价泡沫进一步扩大给经济发展带来的负面影响.

In order to investigate the effect of the implementation of housing price adjustment measures in Hefei,and further promote the healthy development of the real estate industry in Hefei,the price of housing prices is used to measure whether there is a bubble in Hefei’s housing prices.The results show that there is a certain degree of bubble in Hefei’s housing prices;Establish a state space model of the basic value of real estate in Hefei City,and analyze the deviation rate of Hefei’s real estate market price relative to the basic price.Research shows that the deviation rate has increased from 11.10%in 2009 to 45.65%in 2018,of which the second in 2018 The quarterly real estate price deviation rate reached a maximum of 51.53%,but has shown a downward trend since the end of 2018.Based on this,it is suggested that regulation should be adhered to avoid the negative impact of further expansion of the housing price bubble on economic development.