“十四五”时期中国经济潜在增速测算--兼论跨越“中等收入陷阱”

Estimate of the Potential Growth Rate of China's Economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period and Analysis on Overcoming the"Middle-Income Trap"

“十四五”时期,我国经济增长需要保持一定的速度,这样才能既巩固全面建成小康社会的伟大成就,又为建成社会主义现代化强国打下坚实基础。基于生产函数法测算发现,由于“十四五”时期中国经济将处于资本和劳动等“老动力”减弱而TFP和人力资本等“新动力”不足的过渡期,基准情形下中国经济潜在增速将下降至5.1%左右。考虑到外部环境、新冠肺炎疫情以及经济与金融风险三大主要不确定性因素的影响,潜在增速有可能进一步下滑,对此需要高度警惕。结合本文的测算结果,预计中国将在2023年前后人均国民总收入达到高收入国家的门槛值,但这不能简单地等价于跨越“中等收入陷阱”。中国真正跨越“中等收入陷阱”,还面临经济增长方式转型和壮大中等收入群体等重要挑战。为此,中国应采取进一步深化市场化改革以加快经济增长动力转换、推进收入分配制度改革以扩大中等收入群体等一系列举措,从而保证中国经济平稳健康发展,为实现第二个百年奋斗目标打下扎实基础。

In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China's economic growth needs to be maintained at a certain speed,so as to consolidate our great achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and lay a solid foundation for the new goal of building China into a great modern socialist country.Based on the production function method,this paper finds that China's economy will be in the transition period during the 14th Five-Year Plan period when the"old power"such as capital and labor will be weakened and the"new power"such as TFP will be insufficient,so the potential growth rate of China's economy will be reduced to about 5.1%under the baseline scenario.Given the impact of the external environment,COVID-19 and economic and financial risks,the potential growth rate is likely to decline further,which calls for high vigilance.Combined with the calculation results of this paper,it is estimated that China will reach the threshold of high-income countries around 2023,but this cannot be simply equivalent to overcoming the"Middle-Income Trap".To truly overcome the"Middle-Income Trap",China still faces important challenges such as transforming its economic growth pattern and expanding its middle-income group.Therefore,China should take a series of measures to further deepen market-oriented reform to accelerate the transformation of economic growth drivers,and promote the reform of income distribution system to expand the middle-income group,so as to ensure the steady and healthy development of China's economy and lay a solid foundation for the realization of the second centenary goal.