新冠疫情下经济不确定性之不确定研究

Research on Economic Uncertainty Induced by COVID-19 Shock

新冠疫情影响经济回归常态的一个关键因素就是巨大的不确定性。疫情冲击导致的不确定性不同于经典经济学分析框架中的风险和不确定性,其被称为Knight不确定性。这种对未来和未知不确定的不确定,对经济决策的影响迥异于既有的风险和不确定问题分析。应对疫情冲击有效措施的确定首先需要甄选不确定分析的合理框架,同时也要构建对经济不确定性之不确定进行有效测度的信息和指标。不确定分析的概念框架应当体现经济社会的结构性特征,能够体现中国经济和社会特征的概念模型宜将不确定的建模重点放在政府视野。对不确定信息和指标的构建需要从主观与客观信息来源、宏观微观以及时效、时间频率等多方面综合考虑。由于疫情冲击的全方位、巨灾性冲击特征,经济动态分析需要考虑非连续动态调整路径,以全局动态分析为主。

One of the impacts of COVID-19 is that its profound uncertainty,which called Knightian uncertainty,is distinct from the classic uncertainty issues in economic analytical framework.Facing the pandemic shock,we should firstly consider a reasonable framework to distinguish uncertainty,then an index to quantify the uncertainty.The concept framework should embed social and economic structure and model uncertainty from the perspective of Chinese government.The construction of information and index must consider different aspects comprehensively.Due to the extensive impact of COVID-19 and its typical disastrous shock,dynamics of economics should rely on discontinuous transition path and global optimization.