城市工业土地集约利用对碳排放效率的影响研究——以中国15个副省级城市为例

Study on the Impact of Intensive Use of Urban Industrial Land on Carbon Emission Efficiency in China’s 15 Sub-provincial Cities

城市土地利用方式是社会经济发展的重要驱动力,也是影响碳排放的重要因素之一。以中国15个副省级城市为分析对象,运用面板回归模型分析2001~2017年副省级城市的碳排放效率情况。结果表明:(1)2001~2017年各副省级城市碳排放效率总体呈上升趋势,平均增长率为6.823%,其中成都市上升趋势最明显,年均增长率为13.150%,深圳市上升趋势最平缓,年均增长率仅为5.232%;(2)工业土地集约利用(IILU)对城市碳排放效率的影响作用显著,地均劳动力、资本投入及科教支出对碳排放效率均有显著的正向效应,地均能源消耗则存在负向效应;而控制变量中除城镇化因素影响作用不显著外,工业产值占比与人均GDP均对碳排放效率有显著的促进作用,而单位工业产值的二氧化硫排放量则存在较为显著的抑制作用;(3)IILU指标中不同的解释变量对碳排放效率低、中、高值区的影响效果是不同的,地区差异性较大,地均劳动力要素仅对高值区有正向效应,地均能源消耗对低、中、高值区均有显著负向效应,地均资本要素对低值和中值区有显著促进作用,地均科教因素对低、中、高值区均有显著促进作用。本文从提高用地转换率、改变粗放型经济发展方式以及倡导低碳文明的绿色发展道路等方面提出对策建议,以期减少城市碳排放和环境污染,达到优化城市空气质量的目的。

Urban land use is an important driving force of social and economic development as well as one of the important factors affecting carbon emission.Based on the analysis of 15 sub-provincial cities in China,the panel regression model was used to analyze the carbon emission efficiency of these cities from 2001 to 2017,the results indicate that:(1)From 2001 to 2017,the carbon emission efficiency of each sub-provincial city showed an overall upward trend,with an average growth rate of 6.823%.Chengdu had the most significant upward trend,whose average annual growth rate is 13.150%,Shenzhen had a slow average annual growth rate of only 5.232%.(2)The intensive use of industrial land(IILU)has a significant impact on the urban carbon emission efficiency.The per capita labor force,capital investment,science and education expenditure have a significant positive effect on carbon emission efficiency,while the per capita energy consumption has a negative effect.In the controlled variables,except that the influence of urbanization is insignificant,the proportion of industrial output value and per capita GDP have a significant promoting effect on carbon emission efficiency,while sulfur dioxide emission per unit of industrial output value has a significant inhibiting effect.(3)Different explanatory variables in the IILU index have different effects on the different areas with low,medium and high carbon emission efficiency.The regional differences are quite large.The factor of per capita labor force only has a positive effect on the area with high value,the factor of per capita energy consumption has a significant negative effect on the area with low,medium and high value,the factor of per capita capital has a significant promoting effect on the area with low,medium and high value,and the factor of per capita science and education has a significant promoting effect on the area with low,medium and high value.The research proposes countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of improving land conversion rate,changing extensive economic development mode and advocating green development path of low-carbon civilization,so as to reduce urban carbon emission,environmental pollution and achieve the purpose of optimizing urban air quality.