人口迁徙格局在重大突发公共卫生事件的时空关联性研究

Temporal and Spatial Correlation of Population Migration Pattern in Magnitude Outburst Public Health Incident

重大突发公共卫生事件是指某种传染病在短时间内发生,波及范围广泛,出现大量的病人或死亡病例,且发病率远超过常年发病水平。突发的新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)疫情对交通、旅游、文化、教育、娱乐、零售等产业产生了巨大破坏和深远影响,本文利用百度迁徙数据,分析人口在湖北省内城市之间迁徙的起止(origin-destination,OD)关系,提取了2020-01春运期间的省内净流量比指标矩阵,并进行主成分降维和地理加权回归计算。计算结果表明,武汉确诊人数显著高于模型预测结果,宜昌、荆门等地确诊人数显著低于模型预测结果,"封城"阻断了人口流动,使武汉与周边城市产生显著性差异,其他城市对来人口流动严格管控,防止了疫情继续蔓延。

Major public health emergencies are the occurrence of a certain infectious disease in a short time, which spreads widely and causes a large number of patients or deaths. The incidence rate is far beyond the level of perennial disease. The outbreak of novel coronavirus(COVID-19) has caused great damage and far-reaching impact on transportation, tourism, culture, education, entertainment and retail industries. This paper uses Baidu migration data to analyze the relationship between population migration and migration in Hubei city, and extracts the index of net flow ratio in January of spring January. The main components are reduced and the geographical weighted regression is calculated. The results show that the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan is significantly higher than that predicted by the model, and the number of confirmed cases in Yichang, Jingmen and other places is significantly lower than that predicted by the model. The closure of the city blocks the flow of population, which makes a significant difference between Wuhan and the surrounding cities. Other cities control the flow of population strictly, thus prevent the spread of the epidemic.