多粒度矿体模型不确定性表达与传递研究

Uncertainty in the modeling of multi-granular orebody and its propagation

采用不确定性推理理论中的可信度方法和地质统计学中的克里格算法,对矿体模型构建过程中的不确定性分布与传递过程进行分析,建立多粒度矿体模型的不确定性表达与传递模型框架。结果表明,可根据克里格插值计算的估计方差结果,获得以概率为表达的插值精度评定指标,以实现对多粒度矿体三维模型不确定性的定量评价;通过对试验区矿体样本方差与母体方差精确度的比较及对样本克里格估值方差在误差区间内的概率进行统计分析,验证了该评价方法是有效的。

Using the credibility method in the uncertainty reasoning theory and the Kriging algorithm in geostatistics,the uncertainty distribution and propagation process in the process of orebody model construction was studied,and the expression and propagation framework of uncertainty in the model of multi-granular orebody was presented.The results show that,according to the approximated variance calculation result by Kriging interpolation on the samples,the evaluation index of the interpolation accuracy expressed by probability can be obtained and the quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty of 3D model of multi-granular orebody can be realized.By comparing the accuracy of the population variance in the experimental mining area with the orebody sample variance and analyzing the probability statistics of the error interval of the variance by the Kriging interpolation on the samples,the evaluation method is proved to be effective.