柴达木盆地枸杞霜冻灾害风险区划

Risk Regionalization of Chinese Wolfberry Frost Disaster in Qaidam Basin

基于气象灾害风险评估方法,利用1961—2017年5—9月柴达木盆地10个代表气象观测站点枸杞种植期发生霜冻灾害频次。结合自然地理和社会经济等数据,建立起致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标;采用加权综合评价法,权重赋值进行专家打分来确定,借助GIS空间分析技术,进行了柴达木盆地枸杞霜冻灾害风险评估和区划。结果表明:柴达木盆地海拔高度在3200 m以上,枸杞无法正常生长属于枸杞不可种植区;在冷湖、茫崖大部地区、格尔木南部、大柴旦、德令哈、乌兰以及都兰地区靠近山脉区域,枸杞生长期短,适合耕种的枸杞品种少,对枸杞生产经济效益影响较轻,属于霜冻低风险区;在诺木洪、格尔木西部和大柴旦东部地区,这一带多为戈壁,水资源缺乏,适宜种植枸杞面积相对较少,对于霜冻灾害发生的影响程度较严重,造成一定经济损失,属于次高风险区;在都兰经诺木洪至格尔木的小灶火一带,这里是柴达木盆地的枸杞主要种植区,该区域霜冻灾害发生对枸杞影响最大的区域,对枸杞生产的经济损失最大,属于高风险区。

Based on the meteorological disaster risk assessment method,the frequency of frost disasters occurred during the planting period of medlar in 10 representative meteorological observation stations in Qaidam basin from May to September during 1961-2017 was used.Based on the data of natural geography and social economy,four evaluation indexes were established,including the risk of disaster factors,the sensitivity of disaster environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.With the help of GIS spatial analysis technology,the risk assessment and regionalization of Chinese wolfberry frost disaster in Qaidam basin was carried out.The results showed that:in the Qaidam basin,the altitude are above 3,200 meters.In the Cold lake,large area of Vast cliff,southern Golmud,big Chaidan,Delingha,Wulan and Dulan area are close to mountain range area,medlar growing period are short,less medlar species are suitable for farming,economic benefit impact is relatively light to medlar production,it belongs to low risk area there.In Nuomuhong,western Golmud and eastern area of big Chaidan,this area is gobi mostly,water resource is short,appropriate area for planting medlar has certain scale relatively.The degree of frost damage is not too serious,the economic loss is not too big,belongs to the second high risk area.In Xiaolutang area,Dulan via Nuomu Hong to Golmud,there is the main planting area of medlar in the Qaidam basin,where frost disaster has the biggest impact on medlar,and the economic loss of medlar production is the largest.As a result,it belongs to the high risk area.