产业结构变迁对房地产价格的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Industrial Structure Changes on Housing Prices

以我国2004-2016年的相关面板数据为样本数据,运用SYS-GMM估计从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个维度分析产业结构变迁对房价的影响,同时按房地产市场与经济发展水平指标对样本进行聚类分析,考察产业结构变迁对房价的区际差异化影响。研究表明:利用全国数据与分区域数据均得出产业结构变迁对房地产价格存在显著正向影响的结论,但各区域之间产业结构变迁对房价的影响存在一定的区域差异;产业结构合理化程度和高级化程度的变动对房价的影响强度在经济发达地区明显强于经济不发达地区。根据理论分析和实证结果从因城施策、租购并举、财税政策调整与人力资本提升四方面提出建议。

Based on the panel data of China from 2004 to 2016,this paper uses SYS-GMM method to analyze the impact of industrial structure changes on housing prices from the two dimensions of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure optimization.Moreover,we cluster the sample by indicators of real estate market and economic development level,and analyzes the impact of industrial structure changes on housing price in different regions.Using national data and sub-regional data,it is concluded that industrial structure changes have a significant positive impact on real estate prices,but there are certain regional differences in the impact of industrial structure changes on housing prices between regions.The impact of industrial structure changes on housing prices is significantly stronger in economically developed regions than in economically underdeveloped regions.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical results of the analysis,we put forward some policy recommendations from four aspects:city-specific policy,simultaneous purchase and rent policy,adjustment of finance-taxation policy and improvement of human capital.