摘要
能否正确识别PPP项目管理中存在的风险以及对风险的重要性作出评价关乎PPP项目的成败。为了解决PPP项目管理中的这类问题,通过定性方法德尔菲法对广东某条高速公路的PPP项目风险进行识别并且加以分析,首先提出基础设施PPP项目中存在的风险因素,然后采取定量方法基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价法结合粗集理论进行模糊定量分析,从而对PPP项目风险进行评估和预测。最后得出模糊综合评价法在PPP风险评估的优越性以及此PPP项目的风险系数。
If the risks in PPP project management can be identified and the importance of risks is evaluated relates to the success or failure of PPP project.In order to solve these problems in PPP project management,the risks of a express way PPP project in Guangdong Province are identified and analyzed by qualitative method Delphi method.The risk factors in infrastructure PPP projects are firstly put forward,a quantitative method based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and rough set theory are then adopted to carry out the fuzzy quantitative analysis,and the risk of PPP project is thus evaluated and predicted.The superiority of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is concluded in PPP risk assessment and the risk coefficient of the PPP project is obtained.
作者
施慧斌
刘修奇
许应成
SHI Hui-bin;LIU Xiu-qi;XU Ying-cheng(School of Management,Shenyang University of Technology,Shenyang 110870,China;Quality Management Branch,China Institute of Standardization,Beijing 100000,China)
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第5期434-442,共9页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(91646122,91746202)
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFF0202600,2016YFF0202604)
辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究一般项目(WGD2016020)。
关键词
PPP项目
风险分析
模糊综合评价法
粗集
PPP project
risk analysis
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
rough set
