新南非政党格局:主导党政治发展的变化

Political Party Patterns in New South Africa:the Changes in Dominant Party System

1994年新南非建立后,非洲人国民大会(简称“非国大”)由反对种族主义斗争的政党转变成执政党,南非政党政治逐渐形成非国大占据主导地位、其他政党无法对其构成挑战的主导党体制。纵观民主转型以来南非20多年的政党政治发展进程,南非主导党体制虽未发生根本性变化,却出现由巩固强化转向非国大影响力下降的情况。虽然最大反对党民主联盟影响力稳步提升,极端、民粹的国内其他政治力量持续抬头,对非国大的主导地位构成了一定挑战,但这些因素并不是南非主导党体制弱化的主要原因。非国大的主导地位有赖于与南非共产党、南非工会大会等左翼力量的战略联盟,这是南非主导党体制的特性所在。从2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,非国大党内政治竞争加剧,三方联盟功能失调,政府治理效能持续下降,系非国大主导地位弱化的主要影响因素。展望未来,非国大主导地位能否得到巩固、南非主导党体制能否得以延续,主要取决于非国大能否有效维护党内团结、推动三方联盟实现重组、提高国家治理效能,以从根本上解决南非长期存在的失业、贫困和不平等三大痼疾。

After the end of apartheid in 1994 when African National Congress(ANC)replaced the National Party as the ruling party,political party politics of South Africa gradually became the dominant party system,in which the ruling party ANC was dominant and other political parties could not challenge its position.Throughout the development process of party politics since 1994,South Africa’s dominant party system has not changed fundamentally in general,but the dominant position of ANC has undergone transformation from strengthening consolidation to gradual decline.Although the steady development of the largest opposition party Democratic Alliance and the continued rise of populist political parties pose some challenges to the dominant position of ANC,these factors are not the main reasons for the weakening of the dominant party system in South Africa.The ANC’s dominance depends on its strategic alliance with left-wing partners,such as the SACP and COSATU.This Tripartite Alliance is very unique in South Africa’s dominant party system.From the perspective of the political development process of South Africa since the 2008 international financial crisis,the main factors accounting for the weakening of ANC’s dominance are the intensification of political competition within the ANC,the dysfunction of the Tripartite Alliance and the continuous decline of ANC’s governance efficiency.Looking into the future,whether the dominant position of ANC can be consolidated and the dominant party system in South Africa can be continued depend mainly on whether the ANC can effectively maintain party unity,promote the restructuring of the Tripartite Alliance and improve the efficiency of national governance,in order to fundamentally address the unemployment,poverty and inequality that have long existed in South Africa.