经济增长“绕道”而行了吗?——二级公路收费取消的影响研究

“Detour Effect” on Economic Growth? ——An Empirical Investigation of Secondary Road Charge Cancellation

当前中国非高速公路正逐步取消收费。本文分析了取消政府还贷二级公路收费对货物运输的影响,发现该政策显著增加了公路货物周转量和平均运输距离,但对公路货运量没有显著影响。机制分析发现,该政策并没有使货物运输从铁路、水路转向公路,反而导致司机避开高速公路"绕道"二级公路。因此,取消政府还贷二级公路收费并没有产生"增长效应",反而产生了"绕道效应",政府应该统筹兼顾,避免政策产生的非意图负面影响。

At present, China’s non-highway is gradually canceling the charges. In this paper we try to analyze the direct and indirect effects of fee reduction on freight transportation. We find that the abolition of secondary road charges has significantly increased road freight turnover and average transport distance, but has not significantly affected road freight volume. More detailed analysis shows that the increase in road freight turnover is not correlated with a reduction in rail and water transport, but suggests that the cancellation of secondary road tolls has increased "detour" behaviors. The unintended consequences thus call for caution when implementing policies and reform measures.