新冠肺炎疫情对我国消费需求的影响分析——基于IOWA组合预测模型

Effect of COVID-19 on Consumption Demand in China:Forecast Combination Model Based on IOWA Operator

本文选择我国社会消费品零售总额月度数据为研究对象,首先建立多元线性回归模型、季节指数预测模型和引入虚拟变量季节波动预测模型,在此基础上建立以误差平方和最小为最优准则的诱导有序加权算术平均(IOWA)组合预测模型,对2020年上半年我国社会消费品零售总额进行预测。预测结果表明:受新冠肺炎疫情的影响,2020年1-2月份社会消费品零售总额比正常年份下降了25.30%;3月份下降了21.71%,降幅明显收窄;第一季度下降了24.13%。4-6月份社会消费品零售总额比正常年份降幅持续收窄,5月份已接近上一年同期水平,6月份已达到或超过上一年同期水平。

This paper selects the monthly data of China's total retail sales of consumer goods as the research object.Firstly,multiple linear regression model,seasonal index prediction model and seasonal fluctuation prediction model with dummy variables are established.With the minimum error sum of squares as the optimal criterion,an forecast combination model based on induced ordered weighted arithmetic average(IOWA)operator was established to predict the total retail sales of consumer goods in China from January to march in 2020.The predicted results show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2020 will drop by 25.30%compared with the normal year due to the impact of COVID-19.In March,it fell by 21.21%,a much narrower decline.It was down 24.13 percent in the first quarter.From April to June,the decline in the total retail sales of consumer goods has been narrowing compared with the normal year.In May,it was close to the level of the same period of the previous year,and in June,it reached or exceeded the level of the same period of the previous year.