草原补奖政策对牧户减畜行为的影响——以内蒙古为例

The influence of grassland subsidy policy on herdsmen’s behavior of reducing livestock in Inner Mongolia

文中基于内蒙古自治区5大草原类型,运用2010年和2015年两期调研数据,建立二项Logit模型和多元线性回归模型,分析第一轮草原补奖政策实施后,牧户是否减畜、减畜程度及影响因素。结果表明:1)第一轮草原补奖政策实施后,内蒙古草原牧户减畜率达28.75%;牧户草场承包面积和畜牧业收入比重对减畜程度呈负向显著影响。2)草原补奖政策对是否减畜和减畜程度均起显著调节作用。3)草原补奖资金收入和牧户距公路距离对是否减畜呈现正向显著影响;民族类别、家庭收入、牲畜数量和草原类型对其呈负向显著影响。草原补奖资金收入和非牧收入比重对减畜程度呈正向显著影响;草原类型对其呈负向显著影响。

Taking 5 types of steppes in Inner Mongolia autonomous region as a case,by using two phases of survey data in 2010 and 2015,binomial Logit model and multiple linear regression model were established to analyze whether the herdsmen reduce livestock,the degree of livestock reduction and the influencing factors after the implementation of the first round of grassland subsidy policy.The results showed that:1)After the implementation of the first round of grassland subsidy policy,the average reduction rate of herdsmen in Inner Mongolia autonomous region was 28.75%.The degree of livestock reduction of herdsmen was negatively related to the contracted area of grassland and its dependence on grass husbandry.2)The grassland subsidy policy had a significant regulating effect on the behavior and degree of livestock reduction.3)The income of grassland subsidy and distance between herdsmen’s house and highway had positive and significant impacts on livestock reduction.Ethnic type,family income,livestock number and grassland type had significant negative effects on them.The fund of grassland subsidy and the proportion of non-grazing income of herdsmen had significant positive effects on the reduction rate of herdsmen.Grassland type had a significant negative effect on it.