碳排放交易试点政策促进了中国低碳经济转型吗?——基于双重差分模型的实证研究

The Impact of a Carbon Trading Pilot Policy on theLow-Carbon Economic Transformation in China--An Empirical Analysis Based on a DID Model

以中国碳交易试点政策为例,研究碳交易试点政策对中国低碳经济转型的影响.以检验碳市场是否带来波特效应。基于2008年至2016年间中国30个省市数据,运用双重差分法及一系列稳健性检验发现碳交易试点政策促进了中国低碳经济发展。进一步对地区的异质性和影响机制进行研究,发现西部地区的低碳经济转型效果好于东部和中部地区,原因是碳交易试点政策诱发了西部地区的低碳技术创新,带来了创新补偿效应,但碳交易试点政策并没有诱发东部和中部地区的低碳技术创新。同时对碳交易试点政策的不同制度设计特征进行异质性分析,发现采用混合分配方式可以促进试点地区的低碳经济转型,而CCER交易量越多,越不利于试点地区的低碳经济转型。

Taking China’s carbon trading pilot policy as an example,this paper studies the impact of carbon trading pilot policy on China’s low-carbon economic transformation to test whether the carbon market brings Potter effect.Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2016,using the DID method and a series of robustness tests,it is found that the carbon trading pilot policy promotes the transformation of China’s low-carbon economy.Further,the study of regional heterogeneity and impact mechanism shows that the effect of low-carbon economic transformation in the western region is better than that in the eastern and central regions.The reason is that the carbon trading pilot policy induces the low-carbon technology innovation in the western region and brings the innovation compensation effect,but the carbon trading pilot policy does not induce the low-carbon technology innovation in the eastern and central regions.At the same time,the paper analyzes the heterogeneity of different system design characteristics of carbon trading pilot policies,and finds that the mixed distribution mode can promote the low-carbon economic transformation of the pilot area,while the more CCER transactions,the more unfavorable to the low-carbon economic transformation of the pilot area.