基于模型参考预测控制的时滞闭环供应链仿真分析

Simulation and Analysis of Closed-loop Supply Chain with Time Delay Based on Model Reference Predictive Control

针对供应链中普遍存在的时滞现象可以增加供应链系统的不确定性,从而增大其中的牛鞭效应的问题,本文提出采用模型参考预测控制方法来控制含第三方逆向物流的时滞双渠道闭环供应链的库存状态,首先建立第三方回收双渠道闭环供应链库存平衡方程,在此基础上通过状态重组建立增广状态空间模型,以解决时滞引起的网络复杂性;其次,在SIMULINK环境下构建结构图,给出预测模型、状态估计、目标函数;第三,推导KWIK二次规划求解方法,并给出这种方法的求解步骤;最后,以随机需求和正弦需求作为输入进行仿真。仿真结果表明,该方法可以有效抑制牛鞭效应,使生产、订货、库存趋于平滑。

Aiming at the problem that the ubiquitous time-delay phenomenon in the supply chain can increase the uncertainty of the supply chain system and thus increase the bullwhip effect,in this paper,the model reference predictive control method is used to control the inventory state of the dual channel closed-loop supply chain with time-delay of the third-party reverse logistics.Firstly,the inventory balance equation of the third-party reverse dual channel closed-loop supply chain is established.On this basis,the augmented state space model is established through state reorganization to solve the network complexity caused by time delay.Secondly,the structure chart is constructed in Simulink environment,and the prediction model,state estimation and objective function are given.Thirdly,the solution method of KWIK quadratic programming is derived,and the solution steps of this method are given.Finally,the random demand and sine demand are used as input to simulate.The results show that this method can effectively restrain bullwhip effect and make production,order and inventory smooth.