抚顺市汛期降水量预测方法浅析

Analysis of flood-period precipitation prediction method for Fushun City

为研究中长期抚顺市汛期6~8月降水量,选取1965-2018年抚顺市汛期降水量,以2019年汛期降水量预测预报为例,采用马尔科夫链和模糊数学法两种数理统计法进行趋势预测,以周期均值叠加法进行降水量数值预测,并将最近10年的预测雨量和实测雨量进行对比,讨论多种预测方法对抚顺市的适用性。

In order to study the flood-period precipitation of Fushun City from June to August,based on the flood-period precipitation records of Fushun City from 1965 to 2018,taking the flood-period precipitation of 2019 as example,trend prediction was conducted by two kinds of mathematical statistics methods of Markov chain and fuzzy mathematics;the precipitation numerical prediction was carried out by periodic mean superposition method.The predicted precipitation was compared with the rainfall records of recent 10 years,based on which the adaptability of various prediction methods was discussed for Fushun City.