企业流动性偏好与宏观经济增长不确定性——基于宏微观视角的实证分析

Firm’s Lquidity Preference and the Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Growth:Based on the Empirical Analysis of Macro and Micro Perspectives

基于我国A股上市公司的研究样本,通过省际层面汇总的微观企业证据实证检验企业流动性偏好的宏观经济效应。研究发现,企业较高的流动性安排有助于降低未来宏观经济增长的不确定性,表明企业充足的流动性配置对宏观经济增长起到“稳定器”作用。此外,两者负向关系随着地区宽松的信贷政策和较高的技术进步而扩大。通过一系列稳健性检验和排除内生性问题后,研究结论依然成立。进一步的影响机制检验发现,企业流动性偏好主要通过降低企业不确定性进而平抑了宏观经济增长的波动。创新之处在于,试图打通并挖掘微观企业行为对宏观经济活动的影响及其传导机制,拓展了宏微观交叉研究的新领域,对相关决策者理解宏观经济运行提供了微观解释依据。

Taking A-share listed companies of China as our research samples,this paper empirically tests the macroeconomic effect of corporate liquidity preference through micro evidence aggregated at the provincial lev⁃el.The result shows that the higher liquidity arrangements of firms are helpful to reduce the uncertainty of future macroeconomic growth,which indicates that the sufficient liquidity allocations of firms play a“stabilizer”role in macroeconomic growth.Moreover,this negative relationship is profounded with the loose credit policies and high⁃er technological progresses,the aggregated cash holdings play the greater predictiveness for macroeconomic growth uncertainty.After a series of robustness tests and consideration of endogenous problems,the conclusion is still valid.A further impact mechanism test finds that the the liquidity preference of firms mainly stabilizes the fluctuation of macroeconomic growth by relieving the uncertainty of firms.The innovation of our research is trying to explore the influence and potential mechanism of micro behaviors to macroeconomic activities,expanding the new fields of macro-micro researches.Our conclusions provide a micro interpretation for relevant decision makers to understand macroeconomy.