标准化水平对物流业绩效的影响研究——基于VAR模型和门限效应的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Standardization Level on Logistics Industry Performance:an Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model and Threshold Effect

运用VAR模型探讨物流业标准化水平与物流业综合效率、物流业总成本的长期动态关系,结果显示:物流业标准化水平在短期内对物流业综合效率有明显的促进作用,但不能带来物流业总成本的降低,而长期内能够使物流业综合效率和总成本保持平稳态势。采用多元门限回归模型,以标准化水平作为门限变量考察各影响因素对物流业综合效率的影响过程中的门限效应,结果显示:标准化处于中低等水平时各影响因素对物流综合效率具有积极的促进作用,但随着标准化水平的提升,影响程度有所下降。最后针对标准化水平与物流业协调发展提出建议。

This paper discusses the long-term dynamic relationships between the comprehensive efficiency of logistics industry,the total cost of logistics industry and the standardization level of logistics industry by using VAR model.The results show that the standardization level of logistics industry has a significant promoting effect on the comprehensive efficiency in the short term,but it can't lead to the total cost reduction;in the long term,the comprehensive efficiency and total cost of the logistics industry can be maintained in a long-term stable situation.The author adopts the multiple threshold regression models to investigate the threshold effect of various influencing factors on the comprehensive efficiency of logistics industry through using the standardization level as the threshold variable.The results show that when the standardization is at the middle and low levels,each influencing factor has a positive effect on the comprehensive efficiency of logistics industry.However,with the promotion of standardization level,the impact has declined.Finally,the author put forward some suggestions for the coordinated development of standardization level and logistics industry.