基于哈肯模型的人口、土地、经济城镇化协同演化研究——以山东省为例

Co-evolution of Population,Land,Economic Urbanization Based on Haken Model——Taking Shandong Province as an Example

为探寻城镇化发展中的驱动路径,文章基于2008—2018年山东省17个地级市的面板数据,运用ArcGIS和Eviews软件,采用哈肯模型,遵循“梳理研究不足—测度城镇化水平—分析时空演化特征—识别协同演化路径”的逻辑思路,基于不同空间视角探索山东省城镇化协同演化动态.结论表明:山东省城镇化发展整体呈现上升态势,城镇化发展较好的地级市聚集于沿海及省会城市;整体形成了“经济—土地”的城镇化协同演化路径,区域上仅鲁西北地区形成三变量协同演化路径,66.67%的地级市形成两变量协同演化路径.最后,因地制宜提出了促进山东省城镇化协调发展的建议,以推进城镇化健康有序发展.

To explore the driving path in the development of urbanization,based on the panel data of 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2018,this article explores the co-evolution of urbanization in Shandong province from different space perspectives by using ArcGIS and Eviews software and Haken Model and following the logical thinking of"combing research deficiencies-measuring the level of urbanization-analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics-identifying the co-evolution path".The research result shows that:the overall urbanization development of Shandong Province is on the rise,and the prefecture-level cities with better urbanization development gather in the coastal and provincial capital cities;the urbanization co-evolution path of"economy-land"has been formed as a whole,only the northwest of Shandong Province forms the three variable co-evolution path,and 66.67%of prefecture-level cities form the two variable co-evolution path.Finally,according to the local conditions,suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of urbanization in Shandong province are proposed to promote the healthy and orderly development of urbanization.