基于熵权法和灰靶理论的突出危险性评价方法及其应用

Risk assessment theory of the coal and gas outbursts and its application to the entropy weight and grey target decision methods

煤与瓦斯突出灾害是当前威胁矿井安全生产的最为严重的动力灾害之一。以当前瓦斯突出预警指标众多、危险程度评价标准不同这一现象为背景,基于熵权法、灰靶决策理论研究和现场实践,通过优选确立突出危险性评价因子,对灰靶决策理论进行了改进,提出了利用熵权法确立评价因子权重的改进灰靶决策方法,并构建了相应的突出危险程度评价模型。同时,提出以灰靶环数对评价结果进行优劣排序,增强了评价结果的可信度和直观性。以贵州若干矿井为例,对上述方法进行了应用实践和现场验证。结果表明,改进多指标决策理论能较准确地评价煤与瓦斯突出危险程度,应用结果验证了所建模型的合理性和可行性。

The given paper has developed a modified grey target decision method(short for GTDM)to determine the evaluation factor weights by means of the entropy weight,which accounts for the named EW-GTDM method.As is well known,coal and gas outburst(CGOB)is one of the most serious dynamic disasters threatening the mining safety and safety production,especially,in Guizhou,China.For the time being,a lot of indexes can be realized representing the different assessment standards to the mining criticality of the forewarning of CGOB.On the basis of the entropy weight method and the grey target decision theory,we have done a series of researches with the purpose to improve the accuracy and reliability of the risk assessment of CGOB,including the optimization of the risk assessment factors,the evaluation index weights for accounting the entropy weights,calculating the target scores,as well as building up of the corresponding danger degree evaluation model.For the above said purposes,we have introduced the risk assessment method in a detailed manner by modeling the CGOB and confirmed by the field experimental data.In addition,an index of the grey target scores(ηi)can also be used to promote the credibility and intuitiveness of the evaluation results to sort out the assessment results.And,next,the CGOB disaster can also be classified by the target score into 4 grades,i.e.the weak grade,the general grade,the medium grade and the stronger grade.The above said entropy weight method can also be adopted to compare the EW-GTDM method with the experimental data from some other few mines in Guizhou.And,then,we have assessed 6 authentic samples by using the EW-GTDM method.The comparison results of the above mentioned 4 samples(No.1,3,5,6,scores can be contrasted to 5.3,0,10,and 6.8,in correspondence with the same equal levels)uniformly with the real situation of the mining field,and 2 of them being close to the authentic situation.Thus,it can be concluded that the EW-GTDM method based on the multi-index decision theory turn out to be reasonable and feasible for the assessment of CGOB risk degree properly and reasonably.The original multi-index grey target model can also be modified by the EW-GTDM method here introduced,which can be expected to provide some novel ideas for the other CGOB mines and similar cases.