汉渝线商品汽车滚装运输风险评价

Risk assessment for the roll-on and roll-off transportation of the commodity in the Wuhan-Chongqing shipping line

为了提高长江商品汽车滚装运输企业应对运输风险的能力,利用因果图法和变权模糊Petri网技术,分析和评估汉渝线商品汽车滚装运输风险。通过分析汉渝线商品汽车滚装运输的影响因素,采用因果图法从人因、船舶、货物、管理、环境5个方面辨识运输过程中的风险因子,进而构建了集成层次分析法和变权模糊Petri网的汉渝线商品汽车滚装运输风险评价模型。结果表明,汉渝线商品汽车滚装运输处于安全但临近预警状态。人为因素中人的不安全行为和违规操作的影响处于主导地位,环境因素中坝前交通流密度和能见度的影响较为明显,为提高商品汽车滚装运输企业的安全性提供了理论依据。

The present paper is aimed to introduce the causality diagram method,the analytic hierarchical process(AHP)and the variable weight fuzzy Petri net technology in analyzing and evaluating the risk of commodity vehicles when they are engaged in the roll-on and roll-off transportation between WuhanChongqing shipping line.As is known,with the fast growth of commodity size to be transported along the Yangtze River,it has become more and more important to improve and heighten the capability of transportation means and installations to cope with the transportation tasks and overcome the involved risks.Analyzing a specific roll-on and roll-off transportation accident with the causality diagram method and exploration of the influential factors of the roll-on and roll-off transportation in the said shipping line,the paper would like to identify and overcome the hazards likely to be met with by the human maneuvers,the managers of the ship and cargo transportation.And,then,we would like to build up a risk assessment model of the commercial vehicle roll-on and roll-off transportation in the said shipping line by integrating the analytic hierarchical process with the variable weight fuzzy Petri net.For such purposes,it would be necessary,first of all,to work out the initial weight of each influential factor so as to achieve the data needed from the questionnaire by AHP.And,secondly,it is necessary to represent all the chief factors in a graphical manner by evaluating the safety status of each factor and making clear the target risk by iteration to reduce the influence of the subjective factors based on the variable weight fuzzy Petri net and the risk chain reaction process.And,finally,the paper has brought about a series of suggestions according to the risk prioritization of each influential factor made known from the risk assessment model.Thus,the results show that the roll-on and roll-off transportation of the commodity vehicles in the said shipping line can be made safe though still near early warning state.The weight of the roll-on and roll-off transportation has to be prioritized and realized through all the links,from the human controller,the environment controller,the cargo runner,up to the ordinary shipmen.For,human factors should be responsible for the dominant unsafe behaviors and illegal operations in the cargo waterway transportation,and the traffic flow density and visibility in front of dams,have to be more remarkable in the environmental factors.Thus,the above mentioned influential factors can provide clear-cut theoretical evidence to improve the safety of commercial vehicles roll-on and roll-off transportation.