安徽省能源消费碳排放的影响因素、产业差异及预测

Influencing factors,industry differences and forecast of carbon emission of energy consumption in Anhui Province

基于2000—2016年安徽省能源消费统计面板数据,根据对数平均权重分解方法(LMDI)对碳排放的影响因素进行分解,选择Theil系数对安徽省三次产业的碳排放量进行差异性分析,采用协整方法建立碳排放与主要影响因素如技术进步、产业结构之间的长期均衡关系,通过蒙特卡洛模拟对安徽省2020年的碳排放进行动态模拟。结果表明:2000—2016年,安徽省碳排放总量上升趋势明显,从5277.24万t增加到14107.81万t;第二产业是安徽省能源消费碳排放的主体,占总体的70%以上;第一产业占比最小,仅为2.88%。安徽省能源消费碳排放累计增加值合计为2216.1万t,其中,经济增长效应的累积效应占总效应的比重贡献率为349.3%,产业结构、能源强度和技术进步的累积效应占总效应的比重分别为8.3%、-1.5%和-256.1%。2020年安徽省的总碳排放量约为1.74亿t左右,与当前减排目标仍有一定差距。综上所述,可以从经济增长与技术进步优化方面提升安徽省产业结构,降低碳排放增长率,实现经济与环境的可持续发展。

Based on the analysis of the energy consumption statistics in Anhui from 2000 to 2016,this paper intends to offer its examination of the impact factors of the carbon emission according to the Logarithmic Mean Weight Decomposition Index(LMDI).And,then,Theil coefficient has been chosen to analyze the carbon emission situation of the 3 industries in the province to establish a long-term equilibrium between the carbon emissions and the major influential factors,such as the technological progress and the industrial structure.Thirdly,we have adopted Monte Carlo simulation of carbon emissions in the province in 2020 dynamic simulation.Finally,we have brought up about some corresponding implications on how to reduce the carbon emissions in the research area.The results of our research show:(1)The total carbon emission of Anhui has increased significantly from 52.772 million tons to 141.078 million tons during the period from 2000 to 2016 through a detailed analysis.additionally,since the secondary industry serves as the main body of the carbon emissions in energy consumption in the province,accounting for more than 70%of the total.Hence,the primary industry just accounts for the smallest ratio of the total pollution result,merely,a ratio of 2.88%;(2)The cumulative value of the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the province during 2000-2016 is 22.161 million tons.The cumulative effect of the energy consumption on the economic growth is 349.3%in total.That is,the cumulative effect of the industrial structure,the energy consumption intensity,and the technological progress,may respectively account for 8.3%,-1.5%,and-256.1%of the total effect,respectively;(3)The total carbon emission of the said province in 2020 can be forecast and predicted about174 million tons,which implies still a certain gap from the current emission reduction target.And,so,in summary,it would be possible to improve the industrial structure of Anhui Province in terms of economic growth and technological advancement by reducing the growth rate of carbon emissions,so as to achieve the sustainable economic development target and the environmental improvement goal.