新冠疫情冲击对商业模式和社会治理的影响

The Effects of Covid-19 Pandemics on Business Model and Social Governance

本文从分工和专业化的角度对新冠疫情冲击的影响进行了总体分析。一方面,新冠疫情对经济的负面冲击力度远超2003年的SARS疫情,对此绝对不能掉以轻心,必须做好打持久战的充分准备;另一方面,必须认识到中国经济的独特优势,不能过度夸大新冠疫情冲击致使产业链加速转移出中国的效应。首先,本文从不同维度剖析了新冠疫情冲击的经济影响和应对措施,通过划分复工收益大小和复工风险大小,探讨了四种基本的政策组合,并以高校复学为例进行了具体阐释。其次,本文讨论了救助中小微企业的重要性、必要性,以及应该采取的精准纾困措施。特别强调,除了减免社保、税收等政策措施,国家需要设立专项基金,从劳动者补贴的角度减轻中小微企业的成本压力,并进行成本估计。再次,本文从勒沙特列原理出发分析认为,经济体系会通过商业模式嬗变而对新冠疫情冲击做出对冲反应。特别地,新冠疫情的“危”将会通过迅速扩大的“客户基础”,进而通过“网络外部性”的正反馈机制,促使线上会议、移动办公和网络学习等新兴业态获得爆炸式增长。最后,本文在一般意义上探讨了应对巨灾风险的国家治理模式问题。

This paper provides an overall analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 from the perspective of division of labor and specialization.On the one hand,the negative impact of the COVID-19 on the economy is much stronger than the SARS epidemic in 2003,which must not be taken lightly,and must be fully prepared to fight a long war;on the other hand,we should not overexaggerate the potential risks that covid-19 will result in rapid industrial chain transfer out of China,for China boasts of many advantages that are very difficult to replace at least in short run.First of all,according to benefit and risk of work resumption,we analyze four policy portfolios and use academic resumption in higher educations as an explanatory example.Secondly,this paper discusses the importance and necessity of bailing out SMEs,as well as the concrete fine-tuned measures that should be taken.In particular,it emphasizes that besides social insurance relief,tax rebate,etc.,the government should set up special fund that subsidizes workers who were or are still employed in SMEs and contributed to social insurance before covid-19.We also quantitatively estimate the upper limit of the necessary expenditure.Thirdly,this paper analyzes from Le Chatelier's principle that the economic system will hedge against the impact of COVID-19 crises through business model transmutation.For instance,this crisis will be driven by the rapid expansion of‘customer base’,which in turn,through the positive feedback mechanism of‘network externalities’,which will lead to the development of online conferencing,mobile office and e-commerce.Finally,this paper explores the issue of national governance models to cope with catastrophe-like risks in the future.