省联社干预对农信机构信贷行为和盈利能力的影响——基于省联社官网信息的文本分析与实证检验

The Impacts of Provincial Associations’ Intervention on Credit Behavior and Profitability of Rural Credit Cooperatives: A Textual Analysis and Empirical Examination Based on Provincial Association Website Information

近年来,"省联社模式"备受诟病,省联社对辖内农信机构的干预几乎成了"众矢之的",社会各界"去省联社"的呼声越来越高,然而,有关省联社及其作用的实证研究几近空白,省联社模式真的"一无是处"吗?在新一轮农信社改革即将开启之际,为重新审视省联社的作用,本文基于省联社官网信息进行文本分析,采用LDA主题分类模型和熵权法构建了省联社信贷业务关注指数作为省联社干预水平的代理变量,实证检验了省联社干预对农信机构信贷规模、信贷投向和盈利能力的影响。研究结果表明,一方面,省联社干预扩大了农信机构的信贷规模、提升了涉农贷款和小微贷款投放水平,与此同时也降低了农信机构的盈利能力,损害了其经济利益;另一方面,在不同的地区经济发展水平和产业结构下,省联社干预对信贷规模、信贷投向和盈利能力的影响存在一定的异质性。进一步研究发现,省联社干预可通过信贷规模和信贷投向对农信机构的盈利能力产生不利影响。上述实证结论对进一步认识省联社的作用、深化农信社的改革具有重要意义。

In recent years, the "provincial association model" has been criticized, and the provincial associations’ intervention on rural credit cooperatives has almost become the target of public criticism, and the voice of dislodging provincial associations has become increasingly louder. However, the empirical research on the provincial associations’ intervention is almost blank. Is the provincial association model really "worthless"? At the time when a new round of rural credit cooperative reform is about to start,this article conducts a textual analysis based on the provincial associations’ website information in order to re-evaluate the impacts of provincial associations. It uses the LDA model to develop provincial associations’ credit business concern index as a proxy variable of provincial associations’ intervention level, and empirically tests the impacts of provincial associations’ intervention on credit scale, credit investment direction and profitability of rural credit cooperatives. The study finds that on the one hand, the provincial associations’ intervention has expanded the credit scale of rural credit cooperatives, improved the level of agricultural related loans and small and micro loans;at the same time, it has also reduced the profitability of rural credit cooperatives and damaged their economic interests. On the other hand, under different regional economic development levels and industrial structures, there exists some heterogeneity with regard to the impacts of provincial associations’ intervention on credit scale, credit investment direction and profitability. Further analysis finds that provincial associations’ intervention may have a negative impact on the profitability of rural credit cooperatives through credit scale and credit investment direction. The above empirical conclusions are of great significance for further understanding the role of provincial associations and deepening the reform of rural credit cooperatives.