有条件现金转移支付与农村长期减贫:国际经验与中国实践

Conditional Cash Transfers and Rural Long-term Poverty Reduction:International Experience and China’s Practice

中国在2020年基本实现消除绝对贫困的阶段性目标后,反贫困战略将主要围绕减少长期贫困和缓解相对贫困展开,建立和实施激励相容的公共转移支付制度是实现可持续减贫远期目标的一个重要突破口。作为目前国际上流行的长期多维减贫方法,有条件现金转移支付通过提供贫困家庭现金补贴和促进儿童人力资本积累来减少当期贫困、预防未来贫困与改善收入分配,是可资中国借鉴的一项反贫困政策工具。本文系统回顾和总结了有条件现金转移支付的理论基础和发展历程,短期和长期实施效果以及项目执行的判断依据、方案设计和潜在局限性。在此基础上,进一步分析了现阶段中国农村公共转移支付政策的减贫成效与存在问题,并对目前正在中国进行的有条件现金转移支付试点项目的实践成果和不足进行讨论和展望。结果表明,有条件现金转移支付能否在中国进一步发展的关键在于项目方案的设计和执行能否融合"自上而下"和"自下而上"的政策制定思路,以及能否与其他相关政策形成统筹互补和与时俱进的贫困治理体系,进而达成后2020时代的可持续减贫愿景。在中国贫困治理转型的背景下,本研究将有助于为优化新时期反贫困政策提供借鉴。

As the phased goal of eradicating absolute poverty is basically achieved by 2020, China’s anti-poverty strategy will mainly focus on reducing long-term poverty and alleviating relative poverty. Establishing and implementing an incentive-compatible public transfer payment system is an important foundation to achieve the long-term goal of sustainable poverty reduction. As an internationally popular long-term multidimensional poverty reduction method, conditional cash transfers(CCTs) can reduce current poverty, prevent future poverty and improve income distribution by providing cash subsidies to poor families and promoting the accumulation of children’s human capital. It is an anti-poverty policy tool that China can learn from.This article systematically reviews the theoretical basis and development process of CCTs, its short-term and long-term implementation effect, judgment basis, scheme design and potential limitations of project implementation. On this basis, the study further analyzes the effectiveness and existing problems of current rural public transfer payment policies in China, and discusses and forecasts the practical achievements and deficiencies of the CCTs’ pilot projects currently being carried out in China. The results indicate that the key to the further development of CCTs in China lies in the integration of "top-down" and "bottom-up"policy-making ideas in projects’ design and implementation, and in whether a coordinated and complementary poverty governance system can be formed with other relevant policies to achieve the vision of sustainable poverty reduction in the post-2020 era. In the context of poverty governance transformation in China, this study can provide reference for optimizing the anti-poverty policies in the new period.