物流产业指标体系和评价模型的构建方法

Construction Method of Logistics Industry Index System and Evaluation Model

以近几年中国国家统计局发布数据为基础,构建了物流指标体系和评价模型.首先,以4个一级指标、12个二级指标为结构建立了物流产业指标体系;然后,对选取的指标进行因子分析,依据指标体系、负载因子值和玫瑰图筛选出4个代表性指标,对其与GDP进行回归分析,确立GDP与交通邮政业增加值、载货汽车总量的回归预测模型;最后,建立交通邮政业增加值和载货汽车总量的灰色预测模型,进而预测GDP值.结果表明,中国交通邮政业增加值、载货汽车总量与经济发展呈现正相关关系,物流产业对于中国经济的发展起到促进作用.

Based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in recent years,a logistics index system and evaluation model have been constructed.First,the logistics industry index system was established with 4 first-level indicators and 12 second-level indicators as the structure;Then,a factor analysis was performed on the selected indicators,according to the index system,load factor value and rose chart,four representative indicators were selected,and regression analysis was performed on them and GDP,and the regression prediction model of GDP and the added value of the transportation and postal industry and the total amount of trucks was established;Finally,a gray forecast model of the added value of the transportation and postal industry and the total amount of trucks is established to predict the GDP value.The results show that the added value of China's transportation and postal industry,the total amount of trucks and economic development are positively correlated,and the logistics industry has played a role in promoting China's economic development.