基于灰色关联模型的农村居民收入与消费结构关联度研究——以陕西省1993—2017年数据为例

Research on Relevance Degree of Rural Residents Income and Consumption Structure Based on Grey Relational Mode,Taking the Data of Shaanxi Province from 1993 to 2017 as an Example

文章运用灰色关联分析和预测模型,测算陕西1993—2017年农村居民收入与消费结构的灰色关联度,并预测5年后陕西农村居民的收入与消费结构数据及灰色关联度,得出以下结论:(1)从消费结构的历史演变看,陕西农村居民的消费已从生存型消费为主向以发展型、享受型消费为主转变;(2)从不同收入阶段和收入来源看,不同的收入阶段对消费结构的影响和消费项目的带动效应不同,在不同收入来源中陕西农村居民的工资性收入对消费的影响最为显著;(3)从消费结构的历史轨迹和未来预测看,体现了消费升级的演进趋势,未来交通通信和医疗保健消费将成为陕西农村居民新的消费增长点。最后,从筑牢消费根基、制定差异化的消费支持政策、营造良好消费环境等三个维度提出了相应的对策建议。

At present,China is facing a complex domestic and international economic situation,steady consumption has become an important part of stable economy,under the superposition of consumption goes to the countryside and consumption upgrading,the consumption potential of rural residents needs to be tapped,the significance of promoting rural residents’consumption is also self-evident.In this paper,grey relational analysis and forecasting method were used,and the grey relational analysis of income and consumption structure of rural residents in Shaanxi from 1993 to 2017 was analyzed.It also predicted the grey correlation between the income and consumption structure data of rural residents in Shaanxi Province in the next five years.The following conclusions were drawn.Firstly,from the historical evolution of consumption structure,the consumption of rural residents in Shaanxi had changed from living consumption to developing and enjoying consumption.secondly,from the perspective of different income stage and different income sources,different income stages had different effects on consumption structure and driving effect of consumption items,among the income sources the influence of rural residents’wage income on consumption was the most significant.Finally,from the historical track and future forecast of consumption structure,it reflects the evolutionary trend of consumption upgrading.In the future,transportation,communication and health care consumption may become a new consumption growth point for rural residents in Shaanxi Province.Hence,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward from three dimensions:building a solid consumption foundation,formulating differentiated consumption support policies and creating a good consumption environment.