计及可靠性的含风光机组小型发电系统经济性评估

Economic Evaluation of Small Power Generation System Containing Wind and Solar Generating Unit Considering Reliability

可靠性和经济性是含风光机组的发电系统规划时必须要考虑的因素。基于风速数据及光辐照度数据,在考虑风电机组三状态停运模型及光伏发电机组双状态停运模型的基础上,建立了含风光互补系统的可靠性模型,并应用序贯蒙特卡洛法对不同风/光装机容量及在不同风/光配置比例情况下的发电系统可靠性指标进行计算,然后将可靠性评估中得到的负荷缺电量转化为可靠性成本,结合系统固有成本建立综合成本函数,并在考虑环保收益及节省燃料的情况下,对含风光机组的小型发电系统进行经济性评估。算例结果表明所提出方法具有有效性,可为实际的含风光机组小型发电系统规划提供一定的参考。

Reliability and economic efficiency are factors that must be considered when planning a power generation system that includes wind turbines and solar panels.Based on the wind speed and solar irradiance data,and considering the three-state shutdown model of the wind turbine and the two-state shutdown model of the photovoltaic generator,a reliability model with a wind-solar complementary system is established.By applying the sequential Monte Carlo method,the power generation system reliability index under different wind/solar installed capacity and different wind/solar configuration ratios is calculated.The load power shortage obtained in the reliability assessment is quantified as the reliability cost,and the integrated cost function is established in combination with the inherent cost of the system.Economic evaluation of small power generation systems with wind and solar generating unit is carried out in consideration of environmental benefits and fuel economy savings.The result shows that the proposed method is effective and can provide a certain reference for the actual planning of the small power generation system with wind turbines and solar panels.