面向突发公共卫生事件的网络舆情风险演化机理研究

On the Evolution Mechanism of Online Public Opinion Risk for Public Health Emergent Events

[目的/意义]随着风险社会与网络社会的叠加,突发公共卫生事件网络舆情一般都具有热度高、持续时间长、网民参与程度广等风险特征,通过引入HHM模型、系统动力学理论模型分析了影响突发公共卫生事件网络舆情风险水平的主要因素,为我国政府相关部门加强风险防控和风险管理提供重要依据。[方法/过程]以4M理论为基础,通过HHM模型构建突发公共卫生事件网络舆情风险影响因素识别框架,并借助系统动力学对影响因素进行系统模拟仿真,最后以舆情风险演化水平为衡量指标分析突发公共卫生事件网络舆情风险演化机理及过程。[结果/结论]通过理论分析和模拟仿真,大致得出突发公共卫生事件网络舆情风险演化机理的若干条规律,最后结合新突发公共卫生事件防控的现实情况,提出政府应加强把握突发公共卫生事件网络舆情风险引导的系统性、针对性和长远性等一系列措施。

[Purpose/Significance]With the superposition of the risk society and the network society,the network public opinion of public health emergent events have high popularity,long duration,wide participation of netizens and other risk characteristics.By introducing HHM model and system dynamics theory model,this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the risk level of public opinion of public health emergencies,which may provide important basis for the relevant government departments to strengthen risk prevention and control and risk management.[Method/Process]Based on 4 M theory,the HHM model was used to build the identification framework of influencing factors for the online public opinion risk of emergencies,and the system dynamics was used to conduct systematic simulation of influencing factors.Finally,taking the evolution level of online public opinion risk of emergencies as the measurement index,the paper analyzed the evolution mechanism and process of online public opinion risk of emergencies.[Result/Conclusion]Through the theoretic analysis and simulation,some rules of the evolution mechanism of public opinion risk in the emergency network were obtained.Combining the reality of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control,the research put forward the research results that government should provide a systematic,targeted and long-term guidance for the control of online public opinion risk for public health emergent events.