民进党“2025非核家园”能源转型的双重困境与未来走向

Analysis of the Reasons for the Frustration of the DPP’s“2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland”Energy Policy And the Future Trend

2016年民进党重新执政后,推行“2025非核家园”政策。以“废核”为主轴的能源转型加剧岛内电力供需失衡的矛盾,缺电危机常态化,“以绿替核”的转型路径低效无序,成效不彰,“废”与“替”的割裂导致转型陷入结构性困境;“废核”的困境及其负面效应交互外溢,诱发转型陷入与岛内经济民生、环境安全冲突的困境。民进党能源转型的双重困境驱使民众对能源转型的认知回归理性,重构岛内“非核”与“拥核”的民意版图。未来四年岛内能源转型或仍宥于民进党“非核”意识形态的箝制,但从长远来看主流民意的走向终将主导岛内能源转型的方向。

In 2016,the Democratic Progressive Party came to power in Taiwan of China and launched“2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland”energy structure transformation policy.In the past two years,the transformation of energy structure,with“Abolition of Nuclear Power”as its main axis,has aggravated the contradiction between the imbalance of electricity supply and demand on the island and the power shortage crisis is normalized.The plan of“Replacing Nuclear With Green Power”is inefficient and disorderly,and the result is not significant.The separation of“Abolition”or“Replacement”leads the transformation into trouble.The DPP-dominating energy transformation has successively presented contradictions with the island’s economic development,and conflicts with the environment and the public interests.The mainstream public opinion of the social sentiment’s denial of energy transformation finally defeated the“2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland.”The public’s cognition of energy transformation has gradually rationalized and pragmatically,which reconstructed the public opinion about“Nuclear Power”or“Non-Nuclear Power”on the island.The direction of the public opinion will influence the direction of the political party game in the future.